Education and the Timing of Births: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Italy

This paper assesses the causal effects of education on the timing of first births allowing for heterogeneity in the effects while controlling for self-selection of women into education. Identification relies on exogenous variation in schooling induced by a mandatory school reform rolled out nationwide in Italy in the early 1960s. Findings based on Italian Census (1981, 1991) suggest that a large fraction of the women affected by the reform postpones the time of the first birth but catches up with this fertility delay This paper is based on my PhD thesis at the University of Padova. I am grateful to my supervisor E. Rettore, E. Battistin, M. Bratti, J. Ermisch, M. Francesconi, E. Del Bono, A. Datar, J. Angrist, F. Mealli, F. Billari for useful discussions. This paper has also benefited from comments of partecipants in seminars at the University of Padova, LABORatorio Revelli, at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), at the International Conference on “Postponement of Childbearing in Europe”, at the IV “Brucchi Luchino” Labour Economics Workshop, at the 2006 Population Association of America Annual conference, at the NBER Education and Children’s Program Joint Meeting, at the workshop “The Evaluation of Labour Market, Welfare and Firm Incentives Programmes” and at the V I “Villa Mondragone Workshop in Economic Theory and Econometrics”. Financial support from MIUR to the project “Evaluating the effects of labour market polices and incentives to firms and welfare policies: methodological issues and case studies” is gratefully acknowledged. I also gratefully aknowledge financial support from the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Rome Tor Vergata to attend workshops in Vienna, Boston and Rome, respectively. An earlier version of the paper appeared in the ISER working paper series (WP 20) and in the research group working paper series (WP 69). Hospitality from the Dept. of Statistics, University of Padova and ISER (Colchester) is also gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies. Dept. of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova. E-mail: [email protected]. Home-page: http://homes.stat.unipd.it/fort.